苹果增长故事完好无损 Apple still on top

本文摘要：Apple missed analysts’ estimates in its June quarters of 2012 and 2013. Three years ago investors — and customers — were waiting nervously for the next iPhone. Two years ago the company’s sales in China, its most important growth market, f

Apple missed analysts’ estimates in its June quarters of 2012 and 2013. Three years ago investors — and customers — were waiting nervously for the next iPhone. Two years ago the company’s sales in China, its most important growth market, fell. Those were things worth worrying about.在2012年和2013年，苹果(Apple)在累计6月份这个季度的业绩皆远逊分析师预期。三年前，投资者——以及消费者——惊恐地等候下一代iPhone的面世。两年前，该公司在其最重要的成长型市场中国的销售经常出现了下降。

这两者都是有一点人们操心的事情。On Tuesday, Apple’s stock suffered a more serious adverse reaction than on either of those darker July afternoons, falling more than 7 per cent. Profits and revenues beat consensus estimates. This time the worries are iPhone shipments that were a sliver below expectations and a slightly weaker-than-expected revenue target for the September quarter.相比上述两个更加灰暗的7月下午，本周二苹果股票对公司业绩透露做出了更加轻微的负面反应，股价重创逾7%。苹果的利润和收益远超过了共识预期。这次市场忧虑的是，iPhone发货量稍逊于预期，以及该公司发布的第四财季收益目标略低于预期。

Some investor wobble is to be expected. They own a different company than the Apple of two years ago, and their expectations are higher. The stock has doubled since then even after Tuesday’s sell-off. Tim Cook is firmly entrenched as chief executive.投资者经常出现一定程度的挽回在意料之中。他们现在享有的苹果公司与两年前有所不同，而且他们的期望值更高了。即便在周二的下跌之后，苹果的股价也仍比两年前高了一倍。

蒂姆錠克(Tim Cook)的首席执行官地位稳如磐石。But the growth story is still intact. The iPhone remains a magical success story, with 47.5m units sold in the last three months, up 35 per cent year-on-year. Consumers are willing to pay significantly more for them, with the average selling price up $99, or 18 per cent, in 12 months. China’s economy may be slowing, but so far it has done nothing to slow customer demand: revenue from the region rose 112 per cent year-on-year to $13.2bn. At that pace, it will outstrip the Americas as Apple’s biggest market in the next few months.但苹果的快速增长故事依然完好无损。iPhone仍然获得了非凡的顺利，在过去3个月里卖出了4750万部，同比快速增长35%。

消费者不愿花上更加多的钱出售它们，其平均值售价在12个月里下跌了99美元，涨幅为18%。中国经济有可能在上升，但目前为止还没造成消费者市场需求上升：苹果在大中华区的收益同比快速增长112%，至132亿美元。按照这种速度，大中华区市场将在几个月后多达美国市场，沦为苹果的仅次于市场。

None of this is to argue that Apple can keep growing at its current pace indefinitely. How the company can follow the iPhone 6 and the conquest of China is a legitimate question; the Apple Watch is not yet showing signs of being a world beater. Anxieties about Apple eventually losing share to cheaper rivals are similarly legitimate. The point is that nothing in Tuesday’s numbers diminishes the fact that Apple absolutely dominates the most profitable part of mobile technology today, or the stubborn fact that dominance is hard to maintain.这一切决不意味著苹果需要总有一天维持当前的增长速度。有人想要告诉苹果如何在iPhone 6和吞并中国市场之后沿袭顺利，有这样的疑惑是合理的；Apple Watch目前为止仍没有展示出在世界热销的迹象。

对苹果最后被产品售价较低的竞争对手偷走市场份额的忧虑某种程度是合理的。关键在于，周二公布的财报数据既没巩固一个事实，即苹果在当前移动科技利润最低的领域占到意味著主导地位，也没巩固另一个铁一般的事实，即保持这一霸主地位并不更容易。

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